Thanks for all the input. I test flew the key parts of the route in the sim last night (from origin till the last significant mountain crossing).
I'm happy with the diversion options on the first route. I might modify the tail end within ZLA to get me closer to a couple of airports or at least some highways. I looked at the ZLA part for the first time yesterday and saw a 110nm stretch of a whole lotta nothing
Not wild about that. I at least want a highway as an option.
For the crossings, I will be on the lookout for downdrafts...here is the mitigation plan for both crossings:
- approach the ridge at a 45 deg angle. This makes the path to escape a lot closer if a significant downdraft exists. This is a mountain flying 101 technique
- make sure I actually do have an escape behind me. This is the case with both crossings. If there is a significant downdraft,I can sustain a 1000fpm 'climb' (might still be a descent depending on the motion of the airmass, of course) for a little while during the escaping turn.
The first pass is so short, I just don't think it's going to be an issue (ie, I won't have terrain near me up until the last mile or two). The second pass is a bit longer.
I can also utilize a lower altitude than 12.5+ for the 20nm path through Wolf Creek, then climb high as 14k if I want for the crossing. I have done this twice to work out my physiological limits (both were on fairly hot days at the surface, so the DA was probably higher). It's not comfortable by any stretch of the imagination, but for a few minutes (which is literally what it would be, I'm good). 14k may well be overkill, I believe I'll be ok 13 to 13.5 (and every foot counts in terms of physical comfort and performance, the higher you go, that much I do know).
Let's put it another way,if the ride is rough at 13 to 13.5, I'll likely turn around, descend and will execute another plan, probably the other pass. I don't plan on just 'barely getting' through there, either in terms of performance or ride.
I spent some time on the phone with a local guru based at a nearby airport to Wolf Creek Pass. He says that 12.5k on a nice calm morning (and most mornings are calm before 11am, apparently, unless a system is coming through) will be lovely, and is what most of the locals do. He says the pass is used on most mornings by people there heading to the Denver area. He also said the Wolf Creek AWOS is horribly inaccurate. I'm not sure how much faith to put in that. My guess is that it's locally accurate, but surrounding conditions (even up in the mountains at altitude) might be different, particularly if the AWOS is based at a point where wind is accelerated through a pass.
My goal is to only be really high when the situation dictates (treat it like an afterburner of sorts). The ENTIRE pass with 30kt head winds will take 7 minutes to fly, and I plan to be below 12.5k for some of that anyway.
Now, if there's IMC or a really rough ride, I turn around, and plan for the other pass. If that pass isn't good, then I land and wait until that pass is good. I'll be sure to have plenty of extra time for the trip.
Btw, I'm a flatlander, too, but my philosophy is to do some research to identify the risks and then have a plan for each of them. I'm applying that here and coupling that with a lot of testing up front with the sim (to observe terrain clearance, not for anything weather related of course).
PG, what's the reasoning behind the blanket avoidance of the MOA versus planning to transition with advisories? If they say it's hot all over with no altitudes that work for all parties, I'll happily go around. I'm just curious why the plan to avoid from the outset. Something tells me you have some experience with that MOA, if so, fire away! I did some reading about the Airburst MOA, lots going on there, potentially, with live fire exercises.